Parlay with Petrosyan

24 Jun 2009

The status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh lingers, despite international involvement. The self-declared republic’s foreign minister discusses the situation on the ground.

Stepanakert, the capital of the self-declared country of Nagorno-Karabakh, is a pleasant, small city of about 50,000 people. Like Armenians everywhere, the residents of Stepanakert love to walk in the evening. They stroll in twos or threes or with their families along the sidewalks or in front of the president’s office - checking each other out, flirting, catching up on the news. Quiet cafes are arranged along the sidewalks, where you can get a pizza or a beer and chat with friends. In short, Stepanakert hardly feels like the fulcrum of an ongoing international dispute that could erupt into a regional war.

After its victory in the brutal 1992-1994 conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia that left some 30,000 dead and hundreds of thousands of refugees, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) is still recognized by no one, not even its protector Armenia. The US has repeatedly said that it respects Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, and the UN Security Council passed several resolutions during the war also reaffirming Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and calling for the external pagewithdrawal of forces from 'occupied territories.'

But the uneasy status quo lingers, despite the involvement of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s (OSCE) Minsk Group in sponsoring negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The pattern that has emerged over the years is that the Minsk Group co-chair nations – France, Russia and the US – announce that 'significant progress' has been made or that the two sides are close to an agreement. Nothing changes, however: Karabakh remains in limbo, and Azerbaijan continues to spend huge sums re-arming. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev repeatedly warns that he will not hesitate to attack if negotiations prove fruitless. In early June, external pageAliyev met Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian in St Petersburg for the latest in a series of talks on the Karabakh issue.

The one significant player that has not been allowed to participate in the negotiations is the NKR, seen by the Azerbaijani side as a breakaway province, hence having no legitimacy and deserving no voice in the discussions. Its interests are represented by the Armenian government, a situation that the Karabakhi Armenians find increasingly frustrating.

On 14 May in Stepanakert, I sat down with Georgi Petrosyan, the NKR’s foreign minister, to talk about a host of issues including Karabakh’s final status, the OSCE Minsk Group’s usefulness, Armenian-Turkish relations and the prospects of another war.

Petrosyan was often funny and remarkably candid – not the usual portrait of a diplomat, which, he reminded me, he is not. By training, Petrosyan is an electrical engineer, but has served in a variety of positions in the NKR government, and has, since late 2005, been their foreign minister.

War prospects

The question of a new war looms as the Azerbaijani side has wearied of the negotiating process, and I asked Petrosyan how worried he was about the prospect of renewed conflict.

“Rather worried...,” he said. “In the situation whereby we hear on a daily basis [from Azerbaijan] that ‘We are getting stronger, we will attack,’ we are subjected to this. These are the words of the Azerbaijani president, that ‘we will use our forces to liberate.’ That’s what I hear.”

I pointed out that the rhetoric from President Aliyev had become more warlike as Azerbaijan’s defense budget has risen dramatically in recent years.

“How many times do you think Azerbaijan should increase its military budget for me to say that a war will start?” Petrosyan asked. “Ten times? Fifty times? For a war to probably begin? What I hear coming from Azerbaijan is that if a rape is inevitable, then relax and enjoy it! That is what they are trying to say. So they have become stronger! So what? What’s next? I’m not ready to be raped."

Many analysts have speculated that the sharp spike in Azerbaijan’s defense budget is intended as a bargaining chip to force concessions out of Armenia at the negotiating table. This, perhaps, is more likely than preparing for war, but perhaps not. According to Petrosyan, anything is possible.

“We are looking at it from all possible points of view, from the political and diplomatic level, whereby they can use it as a bargaining chip, but also in real terms, from the military component as well. We have to be ready to face it. And we try to take the necessary measures to be ready to withstand these things in real life, in reality. When the time comes.”

There also are legitimate fears that a new conflict between Karabakh and Azerbaijan could grow into a larger, regional war involving other powers such as Russia or even Iran. But on this subject, the NK foreign minister was quiet.

“I cannot talk for other states, I can tell you what we will do. I cannot tell you what others will do. If they attack, we will defend ourselves with all possible means,” he said.

Using an analogy to describe the choices one has when being pursued by a gang of bullies, Petrosyan said: “When you see that several guys are coming at you when you are alone, there are three ways to deal with it: to silently be beaten up, without complaining; to flee or to try to win the fight …”

“When you realize that you have no place to run and no desire to be raped, then you turn to the third option. You try to win, especially since we already had that experience once. We were beaten up, we beat them up as well, but we gained some very serious experience. If they want to try it again, then what can we do? Let them try it.”

But as will become clear in subsequent installments of our long conversation, Petrosyan is not obsessed with the possibility of war. We talked much more about Karabakh’s current status, the negotiation process, and 'psychological issues,' as he put it. He was also concerned about the attitude in Azerbaijan toward Armenians and Karabakh, and had something to say about how attitudes are spawned and how they can change:

“These are emotional issues in Azerbaijan. We could sow the seeds of hatred, too. Those who sow the seeds of animosity are the weak ones. Because if I bring up my son in hatred, I spoil his future. But if I bring him up in courage, he can become a good man. We do not want to spread animosity among our youth.”

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