Publication

The regime most likely will muddle through as it has during previous crises, defying historic, demographic, and educational trends that favor reform and global integration. In the short term, however, Iranian actions are likely to remain security-obsessed and unpredictable. It will require strategic patience and deft diplomacy on the part of the Obama administration and its allies to find areas for engagement, and to minimize the potential for violent confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program and regional power projection.