Publication

This paper analyzes how Europe would be affected by a disruption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. The author argues that most European countries - with the exception of Ukraine itself, Bulgaria, Macedonia and Turkey - would not face a serious gas supply shortage if Russia would temporarily stop delivering gas through Ukraine. However, a permanent suspension of transit could result in serious shortfalls even if Europe would increase its LNG imports considerably. Reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, therefore, will require substantial and long-term investments in infrastructure capacities, including new pipelines projects.