Publication

This paper examines the basic relationship between oil price developments and economic crises. The research is conducted on the basis of three significant past events which had deep economic impact: the OPEC oil embargo (also known as the "first oil price shock"), the Islamic revolution in Iran (the "second oil price shock") and the oil price developments before and after the Gulf War of 1991. The authors conclude that it is likely that political developments in connection with one or more oil supplier countries, especially in the strategically important Middle East, could lead to a new politically-triggered oil crisis.