Heightened Nuclear Risks and the Risk Reduction Agenda
Nuclear risk reduction has emerged as a promising strategy to mitigate the risks posed by nuclear weapons in a security environment marked by increasing nuclear competition and threats. Concrete measures remain difficult to implement, however, given different understandings of risk, the interconnectedness of conventional and strategic risks, and the manipulation of risks as a conflict tool.
Nuclear threats have become a regular occurrence since the start of Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. President Vladimir Putin, his close associates, and Russian media frequently mention the possibility of using nuclear weapons, often in response to comments or actions by Ukraine’s supporters. Given heightened fears of nuclear use, coupled with intensifying nuclear competition not only between the US and Russia but also the US and China, there is a renewed sense of urgency to ensure nuclear weapons will not be used. Previously, legally-binding and verifiable arms control treaties proved at least partially effective in eliminating or restricting certain categories of nuclear weapon systems. However, few are optimistic about the likelihood of negotiating any new treaties today. The international community has therefore turned to nuclear risk reduction measures as a way to achieve some measurable progress and manage risk.
Nuclear risk reduction can be loosely defined as the mechanisms that contribute to lowering the risk of any use of nuclear weapons, whether intended as part of a state’s strategy or in an escalation scenario, or unintended through accidental or unauthorized use. Measures often aim to improve communications, increase transparency, and strengthen the safety and security of nuclear materials among other goals. These can be achieved through less formal means such as non-legally binding agreements, memorandums of understandings, and codes of conduct. Over the last decade, experts and officials have devoted significant attention to risk reduction. In particular, discussions about risk reduction gained some traction within the P5 process – a forum for the five nuclear weapon states under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) – including, in a more limited form, after February 2022. Hotlines, or direct communication links between heads of government to be used in case of high risk of miscommunication or misunderstanding, have featured prominently as an example of a nuclear risk reduction measure with the potential to be developed further.