12 Oct 2018 | Publications

This report by Daniel Kliman and Abigail Grace contextualizes China's “One Belt, One Road” in China’s grand strategy. The authors argue that the “Belt and Road” will cement China’s global power status and at the same time threaten the world economy and global democratization efforts. In response, they suggest that the US and its allies should adopt a coherent and common strategy that seeks to shape the “Belt and Road”, compete when necessary, and most critically, promote a positive economic vision.

12 Oct 2018 | CSS Blog Network

What if the United States under Trump were to withdraw from NATO? What could Europe‘s response be? Sten Rynning argues that Western Europe might endure, but it would inevitably result in a loss of sovereignty in Eastern Europe. To avoid such a worst-case scenario, he calls for a stronger Europe within NATO. However, he also cautions that given the current political circumstances and priorities of member states, an appropriate level of “Europeanization” of NATO is unlikely.

10 Oct 2018 | Security Watch

Owen Frazer and Anaël Jambers highlight that one of the more sensitive topics in discussions on preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) has been the relationship between violent extremism and religion, and the implications for P/CVE programs. In response, our authors here offer five tips for Western governments for a religion-sensitive approach to P/PVE, which include the need to 1) engage with religious viewpoints; 2) address the context-specific social, economic and political drivers that influence extremist groups; 3) avoid linking religious identities and violence, and more.

10 Oct 2018 | CSS Blog Network

Jacqueline Hale argues that in the ongoing white noise of the Brexit negotiations, we have heard little about UK-EU relations on foreign policy and development assistance. However, this is an area where the UK and the EU have every interest in continuing to work closely together, and in a way that recognizes their strong alignment on norms, values and priorities. Here is Hale’s explanation why as well as her view on what form cooperation in this area could take beyond Brexit.

8 Oct 2018 | Security Watch

Jack Thompson argues that Donald Trump’s Middle East policy represents a significant change from that of Barack Obama. For instance, in addition to isolating Iran, the president appears to be supporting the ascendancy of a bloc consisting of Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates. However, this agenda has emerged in piecemeal fashion rather than as part of a coherent strategy – and there are few indications that administration officials have considered the long-term implications of their approach.

8 Oct 2018 | CSS Blog Network

Denmark, Norway and Sweden chose different paths on security following the Cold War. However, Christine Nissen and Peter Albrecht describe in this article how the Nordic countries are now coming closer together due to a perceived Russian threat as well as the security implications for Europe of conflict and poverty in the Middle East and Africa. Our authors also explain why multilateral forums like NATO, the EU and the UN remain the countries’ best chance of addressing threats to their own and global stability.

5 Oct 2018 | Security Watch

Following the dawn of the nuclear age, the US developed the concept of arms control, which seeks to prevent comprehensive nuclear wars and establish strategic stability. Given the deterioration in Russia-West relations, nuclear competition in Asia and more, Oliver Thränert believes it’s time to revisit the concept. As a result, he here reviews three salient differences between the Cold War era and the present day relevant for arms control: the lack of political leadership on the global stage, the emergence of nuclear multipolarity and the growing relevance of non-nuclear military developments.

5 Oct 2018 | CSS Blog Network

In this article, Artur Kacpryzsk argues that the decisions taken at the July 2018 NATO Brussels Summit will improve deterrence and Eastern Europe security, particularly by increasing the Alliance´s ability to mobilize and deploy larger forces. However, he also contends that differing views within NATO on imminent threats and Russia could hamper the implementation of these decisions. Further, the US’ leading consensus-building role and member state cooperation could be undermined by the Trump administration’s pursuit of its own priorities.

3 Oct 2018 | Security Watch

While nuclear weapon states have rediscovered nuclear deterrence in recent years, several non-nuclear-armed states and civil society have continued to highlight the urgency of nuclear disarmament. The latter’s efforts culminated in the 2017 Treaty of the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), but most nuclear weapons states identified the treaty as a threat. In this article, Tytti Erästö and Tarja Cronberg examine these two opposing perspectives. They also argue that both sides should shift away from their disagreements over the TPNW and instead address their shared goal of reducing nuclear threats.

3 Oct 2018 | CSS Blog Network

Bobo Lo contends that Vladimir Putin’s re-election for a fourth term as Russia’s president has enshrined his position as the dominant personality of the country’s post-Soviet era. As many observers expect this current term to be Putin’s last, the next six years could be truly defining for Russia’s relations with the outside world. So what key drivers will shape Russia’s future foreign policy? Here is Lo’s response and his explanation of how the Kremlin will remain committed to asserting Russia as a global power while maintaining tactical flexibility in pursuing this goal.

Sep 2018 | Publications

What could a political thaw between Iran and Saudi Arabia mean for how we understand the Middle East? Could Turkey leave NATO in the near future? What would happen if security-related EU databases were successfully hacked; if South Korea were to arm itself with nuclear weapons; or if an American woman were to head the United Nations? In an effort to prepare for the unexpected, Lars Brozus et al here examine what could happen if these scenarios were to become a reality, and more.

1 Oct 2018 | CSS Blog Network

Eric Mosinger notes that many observers of the Syrian civil war have concluded that Bashar al-Assad’s triumph, while once unthinkable, now appears inevitable. What enabled the regime to come from behind to reach this position? Mosinger argues that his research points to the social and political policies the Assad regime employed prior to the conflict, which atomized Syrian civil society and in turn led to an intensely fragmented civil war.

Organizations and Resources Page Partners

This week's featured partner is the Small Arms Survey, which is an independent research project located at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. It 1) serves as a source of public information on all aspects of small arms production, sales and trafficking on the international level, and 2) traces the relationship between these types of arms and organized violence.