The Effects of Ceasefires in Colombian Peace Processes

As many as 11 ceasefires were declared unilaterally by one of the warring parties in an effort to help or salvage a peace process. In July 2015, for instance, the FARC announced a unilateral truce in attempt to rescue failing peace talks. Warring parties can use unilateral ceasefires to show the government that they are dedicated to the peace process. Indeed, the truce declared by FARC in 2015 made it possible for the parties to formally sign a peace agreement a year later. The remaining 10 unilateral ceasefires have primarily been related to religious holidays or elections.

We have recorded six bilateral ceasefire agreements, of which five are related to a peace process. Note that these five ceasefires all came into effect after 2016, and four of them were extensions of the same ceasefire. Bilateral ceasefire agreements, which require the consent of both parties, are naturally harder to reach than unilateral ones. Consequently, bilateral ceasefires are generally seen in the later stages of a peace process – often a sign of a more mature process.

Ceasefires and Colombian Peace Processes

The ceasefires in Colombia have clustered around three periods, shown in Figure 2. These three clusters broadly overlap with five peace processes between, on the one hand, the government, and on the other hand, ELN, AUC, M-19, EPL, and FARC. However, this does not imply that all ceasefires were initiated as part of the peace process or, for that matter, with the purpose of promoting peace talks. It is worth noting that no ceasefires have been declared in Colombia outside of an on-going peace process. This is in contrast to other conflicts where we routinely see truces outside of formal peace processes.

The first cluster of ceasefires are found in the 1989 to 1991 period. In this period, there were attempts at peace negotiations between the government and FARC, ELN, M-19, EPL as well as some smaller insurgent groups. The first four ceasefires in this period paved the way for the successful demobilization of M-19 (1989) and EPL (1991). The final ceasefire was part of a failed attempt by FARC to initiate direct talks with the government. All ceasefires were unilaterally declared by insurgents.

The second period spans roughly from 1998 to 2002. Here, the government had separate talks with FARC and ELN. Four out of five ceasefires in this period were declared by these two insurgent groups. Nevertheless, none of them were directly related to the peace process. Instead, three were related to religious holidays, while the fourth was connected to the release of hostages. The latter was also the only bilateral ceasefire. The negotiations between FARC and ELN broke down when Álvaro Uribe took office as President of Colombia in 2002. This was the same year that negotiations were initiated with the AUC, who declared a unilateral truce as part of preconditions to start talks. This ceasefire was later extended in the demobilization pacts of 2003 and 2004, ending with the completion of disarmament of AUC in 2006.

Peace Processes under the Santos Administration

Negotiations between the government and FARC re-started officially in 2012. Since then, there have been 11 ceasefires, where three of them were not directly linked to the negotiations (Figure 3).

Most of the ceasefires declared in this period were unilateral. In fact, no bilateral ceasefire was declared until August 2016. There is some indication that the government resisted bilateral ceasefires for fear that FARC would use it as an opportunity to rearm. Nonetheless, the government did reduce its military activities in response to some of FARC’s unilateral ceasefires. Only days after FARC declared a unilateral ceasefire in July 2015, for instance, the government announced it would halt some military activities.

With the completion of the peace agreement, the government and FARC declared a “definitive bilateral ceasefire and cessation of hostilities” on August 29, 2016. The ceasefires that followed were reiterations of the same agreement: first, after the referendum, then they were further extended twice in mid- October, and in the end they were replaced by the final agreement.

The fifth and so far final peace process started between the ELN and the government in February 2017, after several failed attempts. Six months into negotiations, a temporary bilateral ceasefire was announced. The truce ended after the fixed period lapsed in January 2018. The two parties have not yet managed to negotiate a new agreement, marking this ceasefire as the only bilateral agreement related to a peace process that the government has not managed to prolong. The ELN have declared three unilateral election-time truces since then.