Publication

This brief discusses the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s (ISIL) successful June 2014 surge in north-western Iraq and the steps that should be adopted to respond to it. It argues that the ISIL’s surge is the outcome of steadily deteriorating political dynamics in Iraq and that international pressure is needed to reverse sectarian polarization and a disastrous record of governance in the country. The authors maintain that ISIL’s possibilities are limited and an all-out civil war is not inevitable but could be triggered by a disproportionate Iraqi Shiite and Iranian response. They also offer policy recommendations for the US and the Iraqi government on how to respond to the ISIL.