Publication

This paper examines the conflict in eastern Ukraine as it stands in late 2014, identifies scenarios of how the situation could develop, and discusses their implications for the EU. The authors contend that the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine is on the brink of collapse and that the existing stalemate is only temporary. They also argue that the EU’s chief goal in addressing the conflict should be to bring about the return of Donbas to Ukraine, but that the EU should also have contingency plans for a potential prolonged conflict that would aim to ensure that fighting does not spread.