Publication

This brief takes stock of how Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey have been affected by the violence in Syria. Its author argues that none of the countries are in danger of a near-term meltdown, although Turkey is beginning to suffer from greater amounts of instability. Lebanon and Jordan, in turn, have managed the flows of refugees and militants out of Syria far better than anticipated and are in many ways more stable today than they were in especially chaotic 2013. This hard-won stability, however, remains vulnerable to 1) overstretched state capabilities, particularly in the case of managing refugees; 2) the frailties of political consensus; 3) a further escalation in Syrian violence; and 4) shifting pressure from the so-called Islamic State. The brief ends by recommending ways that Europe can help Syria's neighbors strengthen their resilience.