Publication

In light of the upcoming 2016 US presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, this paper looks at how a victory by either candidate might affect transatlantic relations. The author’s overall conclusions are that 1) the relations will be stressed, regardless of who wins the election; 2) if Trump wins, he will launch a “revolutionary presidency” which might include the US pulling back from its NATO commitments and other security guarantees; and 3) if Clinton wins, her poor relations with Moscow, exacerbated by gender issues, could threaten transatlantic unity against Russia. The author further contends that the EU should not be complacent in assuming that the transatlantic relationship will continue as it is and should begin to take more responsibility for its own defense, to include enhancing its resiliency in anticipation of a more self-interested US.