Resilience: The ‘Fifth Wave’ in the Evolution of Deterrence

Author(s): Tim Prior
Editor(s): Oliver Thränert, Martin Zapfe
Series Editor(s): Andreas Wenger
Book Title: Strategic Trends 2018: Key Developments in Global Affairs
Series: Strategic Trends
Pages: 63-80
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich
Publication Year: 2018
Publication Place: Zurich

The concept of resilience is becoming more relevant for current deterrence debates at a time of evolving threats. The fifth wave of deterrence development is rising at a point when established international security practices are fumbling to respond effectively to security challenges. Resilience can increase the ability of security institutions to cope with and respond to complex threats in a deliberative manner. Security policy decision-making processes must match the complex threat environment they seek to govern by being flexible, proactive, and distributed.

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The Changing Risk Landscape

Complex Adaptive Systems

The EU Global Strategy Resilience Index