Publication

The author of this report proposes a new approach to making predictions that affect national security. According to him, long-term strategies should be built not on 'visions' of the future but instead on the premise that longer term predictions, however presently credible, will probably prove wrong. He attempts to show that this premise need not be sterile or disabling. Instead, he points to five complementary strategies that, he argues, will better prepare the defense community for what cannot be foreseen.