Publication

This paper examines the impact of the 11 March 2004 Madrid terrorist attacks on the Spanish general elections held three days later. The author provides short background summaries on Islamic Terrorism in Spain and the Spanish electoral system, and highlights four common hypotheses on voter turnaround in the immediate aftermath of the attacks. Using a detailed analysis of pre- and post-election polls, the paper finds that the terrorist attacks did affect the outcome of the general elections, resulting in a marked increase in voter turnout that could plausibly have been a decisive factor in the final outcome.