Publication

This brief assesses the potential involvement of Lebanon in a military conflict with Israel. It argues that despite the Lebanese civilians' reservations and the prevailing assessment in Israel that Hizbollah is not eager to put its military strength to the test because of the numerous expected costs, it may be that because of the organization’s great dependence on Iran and the direct involvement of Revolutionary Guards in Lebanon in Hizbollah activities Nasrallah may not have much room to maneuver and will be forced to heed Tehran’s instructions to act against Israel for the sake of Iranian or Syrian interests. Thus, write the authors, the fate of the Lebanese people may no longer be in Hizbollah's control.