Publication

This paper analyzes the potential for intrastate conflict in Africa up to 2050. In conducting the analysis, the authors 1) look at major post-Cold War patterns of conflict and instability on the continent; 2) review seven correlates associated with intrastate conflict, which they then apply to the African case; and 3) subsequently explain why intrastate violence has persisted there, despite widespread economic growth, improved human development, and the application of large-scale conflict prevention measures. And yet, despite what seems to be a dubious near-term record, the paper's authors conclude that large-scale violence will steadily decline in Africa, although instability and violence are likely to persist.