Publication

This paper argues that the February 2015 Minsk II agreement, signed by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France to alleviate the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, is more likely to be successful than the September 2014 Minsk I agreement. The reasons include 1) the constitutional commitments made by Kyiv towards greater decentralization; 2) the economic links between the Donbass and the rest of the Ukraine; and 3) the effectiveness of the economic sanctions imposed on Russia.