Publication

With the war in Syria in its fifth year, this brief discusses two developments which it contends are changing the balance of power between the Assad regime and the supporting Shiite axis on the one hand, and the rebel groups, most of which are in the Sunni states, on the other. These developments include 1) the increasing unification of the various Sunni rebel factions, with the support of Sunni states in the region; and 2) the disruption of Iranian and Hezbollah interventions in the conflict by coordinated rebel attacks in different sectors. The authors then examine whether these developments effectively mean that the Assad regime will be unable to regain control of the territory it has lost in the war leaving Syria broken up into separate sections when the war finishes.