Publication

Using existing knowledge of the capabilities, tactics and intent of the so-called ISIS, this paper forecasts potential activities the extremist group may carry out during Ramadan 2015 in Iraq, Syria and globally. The authors identify continued territorial expansion and military campaigns in Iraq and Syria as the most likely courses of action. They also contend that ISIS is likely to commemorate the first anniversary of declaring the caliphate with increased attacks. Finally, without providing specific military recommendations, the authors highlight that ISIS is not yet defeated, and if US policymakers do not make strategic adjustments, Ramadan in 2015 is likely to be violent.