Publication

This paper determines the most likely and most dangerous contingencies that may develop in the second half of 2015 in the Syrian civil war. The authors analyze existing knowledge about the capabilities, tactics and intent of the Assad regime, the Syrian opposition, Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) and ISIS, and anticipate their likely strategies. They argue that courses of action are not defined solely by Assad and his advisers; they are also influenced by Syria’s external backers, most notably Iran, and their priorities in Syria. The authors also warn that the US is ill-positioned to achieve US national security objectives in the existing dynamic and that the prospects could get worse in the face of new contingencies.