Publication

In light of China and India’s development of ballistic missile-carrying nuclear submarines, this report outlines some of the key risks and consequences associated with the proliferation of nuclear weapons at sea in the Indo-Pacific. The authors argue that in the long-term, these nuclear capabilities could lead to greater strategic stability in the region as no adversary would want to strike first against a country with such systems. However, they also warn that such stability in the Indo-Pacific remains many years away. The reasons include 1) that there will likely be a long phase of initial instability as China and India deploy their missiles on submarines without the systems they need to establish a secure and credible deterrent; and 2) that these new capabilities could exacerbate existing tensions in the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal.