Publication

This paper provides a forecast of trends in conflict research and management between 2000 and 2020. The author argues that the threat posed by "new" international terrorism will require international co-operation and real sacrifices by the better-off to reduce its appeal and thus its ability to operate. The paper asks questions such as will rich countries be able and willing to pay the price in economic terms and the pooling of sovereignty or will they, in pursuance of a simplistic policy of conducting a war against terror, create more enemies than they destroy and contribute to a new polarization of the world.