Publication

This paper assesses the risks of jihadism in Spain. The analysis is based on a game theory model which assumes that the behavior of jihadist groups and states is rational and responds to strategic choices. The authors give an introduction to the context which places Spain and global jihadist groups on opposing sides of the game board of strategic interests. Then they analyze each of the scenarios and their implications in the strategies of jihadist organizations as well as their influence on Spanish foreign policy and international security policy decisions. The paper concludes that Spain is still a potential target in the jihadist strategy of destabilization.