Publication

Recent cyber defense studies has shown that there is a qualitative increase in the numbers of cyber-competent actors, as well as an increased technical sophistication of malicious digital tools they are using and the vectors they exploit. These three areas constitute the “who”, “what” and “how” of cyber operations. What is missing from much of these analyses is the “when” question: in which specific geopolitical contexts are cyber operations being deployed. This Trend Analysis examines a series of high-profile cyber incidents with a view to answering this question. In doing so, it identifies five specific geo- and socio-political contexts in which cyber operations play an important role. These are open international conflict, internal civil war, economic and political tensions between states, and strategic rivalry. The Trend Analysis also shows that there are no specific combinations of actor, vector tool or context. This makes it very difficult for policymakers and practitioners to predict the occurrence or severity of a cyber operation.