Publication

This publication examines 1) the current and emerging nuclear capabilities of India, China and Pakistan; and 2) the risk of a nuclear engagement between the countries. Key findings include 1) that the chances of a nuclear conflict involving either India and Pakistan or India and China are not as high as prevailing fears in Western capitals would suggest; 2) that the crux of this opinion is the fact that China, India and Pakistan – despite being enmeshed in a complex rivalry – are committed to the existing open international economic order and multilateral institutionalism; and 3) despite these positive conclusions, there are still important reasons for concern, such as the potential consequences of rising ‘aggressive nationalism’ in China and India.