Destroying Trust in Government: Effects of a Broken Pact among Colombian Ex-Combatants
Trust between conflict parties is a key element for sustainable peace after civil wars. But what happens to the trust between ex-combatants and the government when the latter reneges on a peace deal? This article by Joakim Kreutz and Enzo Nussio investigates the case of the Colombian government’s decision to extradite paramilitary leaders to the US in 2008, which constituted a clear reversal of the peace deal.
Using a survey conducted before and after the extradition, the article finds that rank-and-file paramilitaries clearly lost trust in the government even though they were not directly affected by their leaders’ extradition and did not suffer any personal costs. According to the authors, this suggests that normative rather than instrumentalist considerations led to an erosion of trust. Ex-paramilitaries grew more skeptical of the government as they thought that it did not live up to its commitment. While the causal effects of a drop in government trust among ex-paramilitaries are hard to measure, the authors point out that after the extradition homicide rates increased in areas where ex-paramilitaries were concentrated. These results may hold lessons for Colombia today where the government is again reneging on key aspects of the peace deal with the FARC.
external pageTo the article in International Studies Quarterly