Election Falsification and Its Limits: A Regional Comparison on the Eve of the Presidential Elections

Author(s): Alexander Kynev
Editor(s): Stephen Aris, Aglaya Snetkov, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perovic, Heiko Pleines, Hans-Henning Schröder
Series: Russian Analytical Digest (RAD)
Issue: 110
Pages: 17-20
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen; Institute of History, University of Basel
Publication Year: 2012

The results of the presidential elections essentially depends not on the true poll ratings of the candidates, but on how many extra votes are given to the main candidate and how many are taken away from the others. By using the election results from 4th December, Russia can be divided into three regions with varying potential for manipulation and protest. The result of the presidential election on 4th March partly depends on the turnout in the group of the protest regions with 52.2 million voters, where, according to the official results of the December 2011 parliamentary elections, United Russia received less than 42% of the vote: these regions are mainly in Northern Russia, Siberia, the Urals and the Far East. Additionally, the relationship between the durability of administrative resources and electoral control in the mid-table regions (the regions of Moscow, Rostov, Voronezh and Stavropol) with over 30 million voters will also play an important role.

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