Forecasting the Russian Economy for 2010-2012

Author(s): Pekka Sutela
Editor(s): Stephen Aris, Matthias Neumann, Robert Orttung, Jeronim Perovic, Heiko Pleines, Hans-Henning Schröder
Series: Russian Analytical Digest (RAD)
Issue: 88
Pages: 2-4
Publisher(s): Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich; Research Centre for East European Studies, University of Bremen; Institute of History, University of Basel
Publication Year: 2010

After an exceptionally deep recession, the Russian economy has returned to growth. The Bank of Finland expects that this expansion will, as previously forecast in March 2010, remain robust. Also Russia's imports are expected to grow quickly. Most likely, the growth rates of both aggregate production and imports will slow over the forecast period, but GDP growth is projected to remain at almost five per cent and import growth at more than ten per cent. Thus, while quick in international comparison, future growth will not reach the speed seen in the long growth spurt of 2000-8 that preceded the crisis. The level of Russia's aggregate production will reach the pre-crisis peak of 2008 in mid-2011. As always, there are uncertainties to this forecast.

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