Geostrategic Trends and Atrocity Risk: Understanding the Risk of Mass Atrocities in a Changing Global and Regional Context

Author(s): Sascha Nanlohy, Gorana Grgić
Series: Australian Army Occasional Paper
Publisher(s): Australian Army Research Centre
Publication Year: 2024

Genocide and mass atrocities are, short of major war, the most catastrophic forms of violence that afflict the world today. As a middle power that seeks to uphold the rules-based international order, Australia recognises the importance of atrocity prevention as core to that order. This paper focuses on geostrategic trends and atrocity risks and offers an analysis of how issues facing the international system—such as great power competition, climate change, and urban warfare—affect the risk of genocide and mass atrocities. Greater understanding of these developments is critical for Australian strategic interests in the 21st century.

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