Strategic Asymmetry in Europe-Russia Gas Relations: A Conceptual Note

Europe-Russia gas relations are fundamentally asymmetric. The asymmetry reveals itself in structural economic, political and legal terms. As a result, a proper analysis of the interdependence between Europe and Russia must break free from unhelpful political rhetoric that suggests false symmetries such as security of demand as a putative reply to security of supply, or diversification of routes as a putative reply to diversification of suppliers. In this note, the authors show that the aforementioned slogans are misleading and unhelpful from an EU perspective, drawing on insights from economic analysis, international relations theory, and reliability theory. They conclude with concrete policy recommendations for EU member state governments. In particular, EU member states should reject transit avoidance projects and pursue supplier diversification and strengthening of the Ukraine Corridor instead. As for security of demand arguments, they constitute standard commercial bargaining stances rather than serious security arguments and should be treated accordingly.