Ukrainian-Russian Relations After Kyiv's Presidential Election

The victory of Ukraine's two-time former prime minister Viktor Yanukovich in the country's fifth presidential election in February marks an important milestone not only for Ukraine's domestic politics, but also for its foreign conduct. For Moscow, more than any other capital, the victory provokes relief and raises expectations. Since the so-called Orange Revolution of late 2004, Russian-Ukrainian relations experienced an unprecedented deterioration. Therefore, almost none of the problematic areas of the bilateral relationship- ranging from energy issues to the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol-has seen any significant progress in recent years. Though much of the blame has been put on outgoing Ukrainian president Viktor Yushchenko and his pro-western policies, the current state of affairs between the two countries is also a result of both Ukraine's unconsolidated democracy in general and Russia's lack of a coherent strategy towards its near abroad. Yanukovich-in contrast to his fierce rival Yulia Timoshenko-is generally assumed to be the more pro-Russian leader who could restore the friendly and pragmatic policy of former president Leonid Kuchma. However, a short introduction to the history and the most pressing issues of the relationship will suffice to show that a simple back to the future approach seems unlikely to work.