Bargaining in Intrastate Conflicts: The Shifting Role of Ceasefires

It is widely known that conflict parties engage in ceasefires for a variety of reasons, but how do these reasons relate to the military and political aspirations of conflict party leaders? Building on bargaining theory, CSS’ Valerie Sticher and Siniša Vuković argue in this article for the Journal of Peace Research that the strategic goal of conflict party leaders shifts over the course of a conflict, from creating a military advantage, to strengthening the negotiation position, to increasing the chances of conflict settlement. A comparison of violence and ceasefire patterns in six contemporary peace processes and a congruence test conducted on the 2012–16 peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the guerilla organization FARC offer support for the theoretical framework.