Development of Defense Expenditures of Selected European States Since 1990

This study was authored by the CSS on behalf of the Federal Intelligence Service (FIS). It examines the development of defense expenditures of selected European states since 1990 and shows how the prevalence of intra-state and regional conflicts as well as transnational risks has caused attention to turn towards new security policy challenges. However, the current transition to a multipolar system, which is due to the increasing shift of power towards Asia, has once more tilted the balance towards an increased likelihood of conventional warfare. Since the end of the Cold War, the states analyzed here have been confronted with the need to cover a growing spectrum of tasks with proportionally and continually diminishing financial resources. As the recent past has shown, this will also bring about considerable capacity losses. The armed forces will continue to shrink, costintensive units will be downsized or closed down, and procurement of new weapons systems and platforms will be postponed, reduced in number, or stopped altogether. This trend holds true not only for the states studied here, but for the majority of European states. It appears that Europe’s military defense and expeditionary capabilities will inevitably be diminished, since the EU’s efforts to join forces in theframework of the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) through pooling and sharing are being foiled by the national interests of individual member states.