Publication

This paper argues that after a period of turbulence following Russia’s 2014 military intervention in Ukraine, a tense stability has emerged in the Baltic Sea region. Further, the region’s security landscape is currently shaped by three interconnected security dynamics: Russian assertive behavior, NATO’s reassurance and deterrence measures, and Finland and Sweden’s closer integration into the Western deterrence setup. The text’s author contends that these factors will continue to shape security in the region into the near future. For instance, Russian provocations in the region or elsewhere will likely strengthen the foothold of Western security structures in the Baltic Sea area.