Publication

This paper argues that the August 2009 presidential elections in Afghanistan may set the stage for further confrontation and increased instability. It looks at three plausible scenarios and how each is expected to contribute to this gloomy forecast. These are i) President Hamid Karzai winning in the first round; ii) no candidate winning a plurality, with the top two candidates, a Pashtun (Karzai) and a non-Pashtun (Dr Abdullah Abdullah), squaring off for a runoff; and iii) Abdullah emerging as the top candidate, even if he does not win a plurality of votes in the first round.