Publication

This paper aims to provide a forecast of developments in global terrorism for 2006. The author states that in 2006, most nations will recognize terrorism as their tier-one security threat. He argues that while the terrorist threat will grow in Afghanistan and Iraq - with the latter emerging as the international epicenter for the production of global terrorism - rifts over strategy will develop within the global jihad movement, particularly between Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network and the growing terrorist movement of Iraq-based Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.