Publication

The commentary discusses the effect of the simultaneous change in leadership in Taiwan and China on cross-Strait relations. The author argues that the PRC’s leadership transition increases the risks of volatility and an increasingly unaccommodating Taiwan policy on the part of China. This is largely related to the nature of the Chinese political system in which leaders’ rise to power depends largely upon their winning the favor of more senior generations of top leaders and hewing to their agendas. The system thus provides only few occasions to make public announcements of bold or distinctive nature.