Publication

The commentary discusses the prospects for violence surrounding the Mexican elections in July 2012. With PRI candidate Enrique Pena Nieto holding a commanding lead, and having announced a different approach to the drug war strategy, the author argues that if the cartels are rational, it would be counterproductive to disrupt elections in which the likely winner's priorities would change the military-led, capture-the-capos strategy pursued by outgoing President Felipe Calderon. Despite having pioneered the live and let live "arrangements" between government and traffickers, however, the multiplication of drug trafficking organizations makes it impossible to forge similar relationships as in the past.