Publication

This paper looks at the threat posed by al-Qaeda one year following the death of Osama bin Laden. It examines the group’s pace of violence, manpower, operational safe havens, resource base, ideological popular support, and command and control. It argues that the decline in the pace of attacks is illustrative of the group's broader struggles to recruit foreign fighters, prepare operations, and effectively resource missions. While the battle with al-Qaeda is not entirely over, the US and its allies should begin imagining how the remnants of the old al-Qaeda threat will re-emerge and should work vigorously to identify what the new frontier in terrorism will look like.