Publication

The November 2012 Gaza war has confronted Hamas with two contradictory impulses: abandon Iran in favor of gaining a de facto state in Gaza or cement its relations with Iran, but lose the momentum to build a state in Gaza. A decision to abandon Iran would weaken Hamas's ability to confront Israel in the inevitable next round of hostilities. A decision to stay with Iran would threaten to constrain the ability of the Islamist group to capitalize on its perceived victory and the considerable support it is currently receiving from its Sunni allies in the Arab world for the recognition of its de facto state in Gaza. The policies that Israel will now pursue might ultimately tilt the scale and help Hamas make up its mind.