Publication

This commentary argues that the Iranian surge in Syria won't prevent the overwhelmingly Sunni Arab rebels from eventually prevailing on the battlefield. Iran's only hope of avoiding this is to make the humanitarian cost of a decisive rebel military victory so horrific that the international community will step in and force the rebels to accept a Lebanon-style "no victor, no vanquished" political compromise. It also suggests that the US should exploit the fallout of the surge rather than attempt to combat it.