Publication

In the context of the Arab Spring uprisings, this paper proposes a model to identify the key elements that encourage or inhibit regime change in a country and the way they interact. In particular, the model takes account of domestic, international, and economic developments related to a country, as well as factors that could inhibit revolutionary change, to analyze the level of a government’s stability. The authors apply the model to analyze the level of governmental stability in Egypt prior to January 2011, as well as the situation in 2013 in Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.