Publication

This paper looks at the 2009 and 2014 presidential elections in Afghanistan. It suggests polls accurately predicted that President Karzai could win the 2009 election, but would have to do so through a second ballot. The author argues if Karzai had trusted the polls he could have won fairly. However, the approach he took instead saw his victory tainted by claims of fraud. The second part of the paper reports that polling attempts in the lead up the 2014 election were significantly thwarted by violence. Nevertheless, from the information gained, it predicts Abdullah and Ghani will win the first round but neither of them will come close to an absolute majority.