Publication

This paper examines the negotiations leading up to the 12 February 2015 (second) Minsk agreement on a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine, the military balance in the region and the appetite for further conflict among the parties to the conflict. It also examines the state of the fighting that took place prior to and after the agreement was made, Russian involvement in the conflict and the implications of Kyiv’s loss of Debaltseve following the ceasefire.