Publication

This brief examines the political situation in Taiwan in anticipation of the country's 2016 general elections. The author argues that the political landscape in Taiwan is changing, with opposition leader Tsai Ying-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) emerging as a front-running candidate. She attributes Tsai’s rise in popularity to 1) the incumbent president having served his two-term limit; 2) the waning popularity of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party, partly due to declining economic security on the island and the party's difficult relations with Beijing; and 3) the deep split within the KMT compounded by the fact that the party has not yet appointed a presidential candidate. The author also addresses the DPP’s stance on cross-Strait relations and the US position on the elections.