Publication

This commentary assesses the rocky relationship between NATO and Russia since the latter’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the start of the proxy war in Eastern Ukraine. Considering where things stand, the text’s authors explore three scenarios that could unfold in the future – 1) continued confrontation, with a strong possibility of further escalation; 2) “contained confrontation”; and 3) pragmatic partnership. Which scenario will prevail will naturally depend on internal developments in Russia and NATO and on other more distant factors.