Publication

This briefing takes stock of the current political and security situation on the Korean Peninsula. According to the text’s authors, 1) regime change in Pyongyang is unlikely in the near-term (the elite is satisfied with its lot, the potential opposition has been crushed, and national reverence for the Kim dynasty continues); 2) the country is not going to abandon its nuclear-weapons program any time soon, which means little progress should be expected from the Six-Party Talks; and 3) the confidence-building measures launched by South Korea offer only “a glimmer of hope” that the two Koreas will reconcile with each other anytime soon.