Publication

This publication features eight speculative scenarios that could impact the foreign and security policies of Germany and the European Union. The possible events include the following: 1) a highly polarized and violent 2016 US presidential election that leads to a state crisis; 2) a devastating earthquake that strikes Greater Tokyo in June 2017; 3) a Russian warplane laden with nuclear weapons that crashes in Ukrainian territory; 4) the near-term attempts by Russia’s Far East for greater autonomy; 5) a little-appreciated risk to North African stability (absent bees!); 6) the effective management by 2020 of Europe’s refugee crisis; 7) the integration of EU member states’ foreign ministries into the European External Action Service; and 8) the race between nationalist and European conceptions of how to integrate the Albanian-populated regions of the Western Balkans.