Publication

This paper argues that Russia's intervention in Syria remains a risky one, and that Vladimir Putin may ultimately find himself in a position where he needs the West and NATO more than they need him. Question: Given Russia's post-911 preference for hybrid wars followed by frozen conflicts, why has it chosen a different approach in Syria? The text's author believes Moscow is driven by its determination to 1) preserve an ally and its last overseas military base; 2) reintroduce itself militarily into the Middle East; and 3) seize the opportunity to test new military equipment. However, the possibilities of becoming ensnared in Syria, unleashing unrest in Russia, and performing poorly in the 2016 Duma elections should drive Putin to reach an accommodation with the West sooner rather than later