Publication

This paper analyzes what Taiwan's future political interaction with the People's Republic of China (PRC) might look like, by presenting two scenarios - one with Taiwan moving toward formal independence from China, just as Mongolia, and the other with Taiwan being forcefully integrated into China, as in the case of Tibet. Furthermore, the paper explores the developments of the PRC's relations with Taiwan, Mongolia and Tibet and their possible international implications. The author concludes that Taiwan will neither rapidly achieve the de jure independence like Mongolia, nor be forcibly integrated by China like Tibet, but that its status in the international state system in the short run will be ambiguous, full of hazard and potential.